is 2012 Doomsday a random event?

Random Event is considered very rare but has probability on the scale of magnitude.  Such evens do occur out of context and without pre-warning.  2012 Doomsday may fit this category.  One such trait of random event is, it defies the logics and reasons also can not be predicted for its exact date of occurrence.

What do we draw for 2012 from random theory? If there are any such events which are going to happen in 2012 or any year, can not be predicted largely. Rare events do not have sizable parameters and values can not be computed in lab. Well nobody came forward with the scientific model to prove anything regarding the doomsday theories.  Can such model be made?. The existing model of Monte Carlo engine can be used to some extent. Monte Carlo engine is used in financial world to predict the outcome of the investment on the x values.  One has to sit down with previous data and make some conclusion to use Monte Carlo Engine in the context of 2012 doomsday theories.  For example, planet niburu may or may not stand chance to arrive. The hypothetical tools can be used effectively to make note of the probability.

I do not have access to such tools which can be used in labs to predict the dates of natural calamities, floods, earthquake and others.  No credible scientist ever put his name on the stake to predict anything which would tarnish his image in the intellect circles.

Aliens arrival in 2012, can not be predicted because the previous data is absent. The model is doomed to fail in the absence of quality of data.  2012 doomsday theories are full of noise. If you remove noise, hardly remains any usable data.

Lets assume,  2012 doomsday a random event on the horizon which does not have the computable values. May be it can help lots of people to think beyond. 2012 doomsday event holds the same probability as any unpredictable event.  Rest, the experts are guessing in vacuum.  There is no substance in them, just the noise which is loud enough to fool others.

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